As the Republicans have taken control of the Presidency, Congress, and a majority of state legislatures and governorships around the country, there have been quite a few people who are forwarding the idea that, despite these set-backs, the country will eventually be turning blue by reason of demographics. We just need to wait until the old straight white folks die off and voilà, the New Democratic Majority will emerge.
We may need to rethink those assumptions.
Let’s take a look at the millennials. It wasn't that long ago … well, yes it was that long ago … it just doesn't seem like that long ago … but I digress. When we boomers were young, we were the liberal vanguard. Now we are leading the forces of reaction. What happened? We aged.
There is an old adage: “Anyone who is a Republican when they are twenty doesn't have a heart. Anyone who isn't a Republican when they are fifty doesn't have a brain”. I don’t agree with the premise (after all, I am one of those who allegedly doesn't have a brain), but it does point a basic fact of life. People tend to become more conservative and religious as they age. This will happen to the millennials too.
Regarding racial and ethnic minorities, I am astounded how liberals can take the view that Democrats can always count on the votes of the minority populations. That view IMHO is based on the rather racist assumption that all members of a particular minority group think the same.
Why do we assume that Latinos, for example, are a homogenous group? They are not. There are differences among nationalities. There are differences between first, second, third, fourth etc. generation Latinos. Some are recent arrivals. Some have families that go back to before the United Staes existed.
There are differences in income. Not surprisingly, as some — not all — Latinos becom more successful, they become more conservative. Two of the most dedicated Trump supported I know are self-made successful Mexican-American women.
There are age differences. Again quite often increased age brings increased conservatism. There are differences in religious belief. Those two women I mentioned above? One is a devout Catholic. The other is just a devoutly anti-Catholic.
Twenty-nine percent of the Latinos who voted went for Trump despite his blatant racism. What happens if a “reasonable Republican” such as Kasich reaches out the the Latino voters, especially the affluent Latino voters?
I don’t see the Republicans making a concerted effort to court the African -Americans but with a less strident approach they could peal off 15-20% of the vote. I doubt that will happen, but though 88% of the Africana-American vote went for Clinton, that represented a five percent drop from Obama.
The Democratic leadership should not take any vote for granted, and it shouldn’t make the racist assumption that African-Americans are a monolithic block. Just as with whites and Latinos, there are educational, regional, religious, and socio-economic differences.
Religious minorities such as Muslims? Again we must keep in mind the Muslims are a diverse group. Right now they vote Democratic because of the Republican rhetoric, but there are many socially conservative Muslims. Keep in mind that in 2000 the Muslim vote went for George W Bush, and that they may have given him the votes that carried Florida. Also remember that Catholic were once a reliable Democratic demographic. The Republicans reached out to them, using mostly pro-life rhetoric, and over the years the Catholic vote has become much less reliable.
There is one other factor in play. Even among those who remain Democratic, regardless of race, ethnicity or religious background, it is important for them to vote. Too often they don’t.
So what is the take away from this?
If the Democratic Party is content the conduct business as usual, they may find that despite the demographic trends, they will continue to lose elections.
IMHO, they cannot continue to campaign on the theme that “We are not as bad as the other guys”. That is only my opinion of course. Others may reach a different conclusion, but regardless this is a discussion that should take place.