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The Arizona Secretary of State's office is reporting that over 600,000 ballots have not been counted. ABC 15 has provided a breakdown of uncounted ballots. The breakdown is in a PDF file here, and I am re-creating the table below:

Uncounted early vote and provisional ballots

County early vote provisional
Apache 1612 845
Cochise Unavailable Unavailable
Coconino 5700 5300
Gila 2134 1285
Graham 0 462
Greenlee 0 2
La Paz 395 415
Maricopa 344000 115000
Mohave Un Un
Niavajo 3301 2285
Pima 54541 26194
Pinal 20000 7437
Santa Cruz 839 909
Yavapai un un
Yuma 7439 2239
Total 439961 162373
The GRAND TOTAL of uncounted ballots, that we know of, is 602,334. That is over half a million votes not counted.

The Early Voting Project only has early voting statistics for Maricopa, where 662,990 early votes were cast. In other words, more than half of Maricopa county early votes have not been counted.

This is a MAJOR problem.

These are the current totals in Maricopa county Sheriff's race:

REP - ARPAIO, JOE*    306950    489952    52.54
DEM - PENZONE, PAUL    240249    401574    43.06
IND - STAUFFER, MIKE    24007    40993    4.4

Just over 80,000 votes separate them, and there are more than 400,000 votes uncounted.

And, consider this:

"This year, at least 111,975 Latinos in AZ have already voted early," a statement from the group released Monday reads. "That is already a 28 percent increase in the number of Latinos who voted early this year compared to 4 years ago. This proves that Latinos are turning out to vote in unprecedented numbers across Arizona this year."
These uncounted early voting ballots have the potential to change the close races in the state, including the senate race between Carmona and Flake, where Flake is also ahead by around 80,000 votes.

Manyamile also has a diary about this here:

Biscobosco has a diary about it here:

From the comments below, David makes a good point about provisional ballots and concessions:

Another problem with the concessions...

is that some of the provisional-ballot voters may need to take additional action by next Tuesday for their votes to be counted.  And they're less likely to do that if they think there's no way it will make a difference in any race.

As explained in the FAQ on provisional ballots from the Pima County Recorder's Office, if someone is issued a provisional ballot because they had no ID with them when they came to the polls, as opposed to inadequate ID, then they must bring proper ID to the county recorder's office by 5 business days after the election to have their vote counted:

I was required to vote a provisional ballot because I did not have ANY identification at the polls. What do I do now?

The identification requirement was introduced into Arizona law by a voter approved ballot initiative. If you had no form of acceptable identification, you must bring identification to the Recorder’s Office within the time limits of the statute. As a convenience to voters, the Recorder’s Office designates several locations within an election area as receiving locations for that identification. The poll workers should have provided you with a list of the required identification and of the receiving locations at the time you finished your provisional ballot. For most elections, the deadline for presenting that identification is 5:00 p.m. on the Friday following election day. For the November election cycles in even numbered years, the deadline is 5:00 p.m. on the 5th business day after election day. That may be either the Tuesday or the Wednesday of the week after election day depending on when the Veteran’s Day holiday falls. If you do not present the proper identification by that deadline, the law requires that your ballot be rejected.

It is CRITICAL that those voters understand that they could potentially make a difference by presenting their ID in time.  It seems to me that at the very least, Carmona and Penzone need to be persuaded to retract their concessions and publicly urge any supporters who were told to come to the recorder's office with ID to actually do so.
UPDATE 10/8/12 --

I just ran some numbers in a spreadsheet. The results suggest that Carmona probably still won't win, but he could come very close. There are also close house races where we could win in the end.

Here are the current totals of all counted ballots for Carmona/Flake:

Choice    PP Early Ballots Provisional Ballots Maricopa Total Percent
CARMONA 134,007 212,282 261 408,203 754,753 45.38%
FLAKE 144,472 207,477 184 482,487 834,620 50.18%
VICTOR 13,474 17,395 24 41,363 72,256 4.34%
There were 162,373 provisional ballots, and Carmona is winning them 56-39. Only 469 provisional ballots have been counted, so far. Not all provisional ballots will be counted. On average, about 20 - 30% of provisional ballots don't get counted.

I put all the information into a spreadsheet and ran the numbers with the following assumptions: 70% of provisional ballots will be counted, 10% of the early ballots reported as not counted last night have already been counted (just a guess) and the margins will remain the same.


So, Flake still wins, but only by 2 points. That bodes will for some of the close house races, specially Barber/McSally where Barber is leading in early ballots by 4 points and only 8500 votes separate them with McSally leading.

8:33 PM PT: I also want to mention that the SoS has said it could take up to ten days for these to get counted.

Originally posted to Posh (and not so Posh) Thoughts on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 08:06 PM PST.

Also republished by Phoenix Kossacks and Baja Arizona Kossacks.

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